Halfway down the Danube

Public option

Or, God hates a welcher.

So Josh Trevino and I had a bet.  (If you don't know Josh Trevino, I used to post at his old "Tacitus" blog, waay back in 2005 or so.  Then he was one of the cofounders of Red State.  These days he's blogging, very intermittently, over here.)  Josh bet that we'd get some sort of health care reform, but without a public option.  I bet that we would get a public option. 

This was back in [rummages through inbox] the summer of 2008. Health care reform passed, sans public option, in February 2009.  So I'm a little late on this one.  But New Years' Eve is the time to discharge obligations.

The bet?  Loser does a blog post on "I was wrong, and why".

US Senate Death Watch (2010 version)

I haven't done this in a while.  But it's cold and grey outside.  And hey, arguably it's more relevant than ever.

Wikipedia has this handy list of Senators by age.  Makes this slightly morbid task go lickety-split fast!  Ten oldest Senators:

1)  Robert Byrd (D-WV).  At 92, he's the longest serving Senator ever.  Democrat, with a Democratic state governor (D-D), so no change in the Senate's balance of power if he goes.

2)  Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ).  85, but in good health.  Democrat with a Republican governor!  So if he departs the Senate, the Democrats get knocked back under 60 votes.

3)  Daniel Inouye (D-HI).  85.  World War II vet, been in the Senate since the Kennedy administration.  Hawaii has a Republican governor, but Hawaii is one of the few states that restricts the governor's power of appointment -- she has to choose a replacement who's of the same party as the outgoing Senator.

4)  Daniel Akaka (D-HI).  85, just a few days younger than Inouye, but more than 20 years less senior.  Same situation.

5)  Arlen Specter (D-PA).  79.  Since he's now a good Democrat, this seat is D-D.

6) Jim Bunning (R-KY).  78.  R-D, so if he leaves us, the Democrats gain the seat.  However, while progressive blogs love to make snide speculations about Bunning's mental or emotional state, he's a former professional athlete who seems to be in robust good health.

7) Dick Lugar (R-KY).  77.  The seat is R-R, but it's worth noting that Lugar is what passes for a moderate Republican these days.  If he were to be replaced, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels would probably want someone more reliably conservative.

8)  Dianne Feinstein (D-CA).  76.  D-R, as Di-Fi's replacement would be chosen by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

9)  Chuck Grassley (R-IA).  76.  R-D, as Iowa's governor is Democrat Chet Culver.  Culver is facing a tough re-election race, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him appoint himself.

10) Bob Bennett (R-UT).  And we can throw in #11 as well -- that's Orrin Hatch, also R-UT and 76 years old.  Both R-R, and in good health.  Utah has an unusual law on Senatorial replacements: the governor picks from a list of three names provided by the former Senator's party.  Moot here, but interesting.

The next four -- Shelby, Levin, Inhofe and Kohl -- are all R-R or D-D. (Kohl is from Wisconsin, which is one of the few states where the governor only gets an interim appointment until there's a special election.  Moot but, again, interesting.)

Then #16, Pat Roberts of Kansas, is R-D, as is #17, George Voinovich of Ohio.  (I had no idea he was still around.  Go figure.)   The top twenty finishes with Babs Mikulski (D-D), John McCain (R-R) and Jay Rockefeller (D-D).  I could keep going down the list, but 100 Senators is a lot.  And anyway, we're getting down into relative youth -- Jay Rockefeller is a mere 72. 

Still, in the top 20 there are two Senators whose departure could give the Republicans a filibuster-proof minority (Lautenberg and Feinstein) and four who could give the Democrats a 61-vote majority (Bunning, Grassley, Roberts and Voinovich). 

Statistically speaking, it's very unlikely that any of them are likely to leave the building before the next election.  Still, it's sort of an interesting exercise.  Well, interesting for me, I guess.

I am morally certain that someone somewhere, has gone through the whole Senate and posted a list, corrected for things like interim appointments and special elections.  And I probably could have found that list in less time than it would have take to write this post. But, well, there it is.

-- On an unrelated note, this is the single finest policy-related post I have ever read.  Well played, Mr. Farley.  Well played.

Random political factoid

Let us say that the modern era of American politics began in 1965.

Since then, there have been seven midterm elections coming after the election of a new President.  Let's consider them.

1966 -- Johnson (D) takes a bath as conservatives rebound from the disaster of 1964.  Loses 3 seats in the Senate and 48 in the House.

1970 -- Nixon (R) does okay, gaining a seat in the Senate and losing 12 in the House.

1978 -- Carter (D) loses 3 Senate and 15 House

1982 -- Reagan (R) loses 26 House but none in the Senate

1990 -- Bush (R) very modest losses, one Senate and 8 House

1994 -- Clinton (D) gets brutally hammered, 8 Senate and 54 (!) House.

2002 -- Bush (R) becomes the first President in almost 70 years to make gains in a midterm, picking up 2 Senate and 8 House seats.

Let us say that a Senate seat is worth four points and a House seat, one.  (Yes, yes.  And a real methodology would include governors and state legislatures as well.  Toy model, bear with me.)  How do they rank?

When is it okay to vote Republican?

What the title says.

A bit of disclosure: I used to be a serious, no kidding Republican.  As a Reagan-era college kid, I was into all of it: Young Republicans, College Republicans, Committee on the Clear and Present Danger, working for a Republican congressman (the late Harris Fawell of Illinois), working for the Republican National Committee.  A bit later, the Federalist Society.  Most of you know this already but, well, for the record.

Obviously this is no longer the case, but my personal political hegira is a story for another post.  Right now I want to talk about voting for Republicans.  Last post I mentioned that I'd vote for Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle; just to drive it home, in 2006 I did vote for Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell.  Who, like Lingle, is a moderate, intelligent technocrat with just a bit of an edge.

So when is this okay?

Barr '08; or, Fail

I haven't seen anyone -- not even the libertarian blogs -- mention Bob Barr. 

So, why not.   Shouldn't take long.

There was a time when people thought Bob Barr might get three percent of the vote nationwide.  (There was a Zogby poll at one point that showed him over five percent.)  It was thought that he might swing various states -- Georgia, Montana -- from one party to another.  That in a year when voters were nervous about both parties, he might be a strong voice for an alternative way.  That he might be the strongest Libertarian candidate for President since the party started running back in 1972.

As it turned out, not.

That ineffective wuss Obama

This seems to be the emerging conservative reaction.

Obama is a charismatic nonentity, an empty suit.  He's never done anything much with his life, and he's not going to start now.  He won't be able to handle the challenges of the next six months, never mind the next four years.  He'll be a one-termer, quickly forgotten, notable only for being the first African-American president. Another Jimmy Carter, if you like. You can see this in a variety of places -- here, for instance -- but I've also heard it from a family member, and via e-mail with a conservative acquaintance.

Well... maybe.

3:30 a.m.

Pennsylvania for Obama, Georgia and West Virginia for McCain.  NC and VA still out.  At this point it's looking like a win,but no landslide.

Loathsome Senator McConnell squeaking out a win in KY.  (My goodness, there are some unpleasant Republican Senators up for re-election this cycle.)

CNN on TV ("we're getting very close to a major projection"), dailykos, FiveThirtyEight, Andrew Sullivan and the rest of the Atlantic group.

The heat went mysteriously off.  Noticed it when I came home this evening.  Fiddling with the downstair's burner produced encouraging humming noises but no actual heat.  Annoying!  Finally found what seemed to be a restart button a few minutes ago.

Obama ahead in Florida and Ohio, but nothing is called yet.  Ohh, so close in NC. 

More in a bit.

3:45 -- Ohio for Obama, which means it's pretty close to over.  CNN shows the McCain central campaign rally: they have Hank Williams,Jr. live on stage but the TV turned off.

...there's really no way for McCain to win without Ohio or Pennsylvania.  It's over.

4:00 -- Iowa for Obama.  That gets him to 202.  The three locked-up west coast states have 73.  Win.

Oh my.

Just before 5:00 -- Virginia for Obama.  Polls closing on the west coast. McCain expected to concede within the hour.

Few minutes later -- CNN calls it for Obama.  Pan after pan of shrieking Obama supporters.  I was maybe doing some shrieking myself!

Later -- Watched McCain's speech, which was weary and (I thought) pro forma, but which everyone is calling gracious.  Then Obama's speech, which seemed more like a stump than an acceptance.  But, well, so what?  It's a new world.

Okay, shower and coffee.  We leave in an hour for the airport.  Good night and good morning!

Predictions

Everybody's doing 'em.

I did a set for the midterm and, um, not so great.  I was too conservative, guessing the Dems would win a "razor thin" majority in the House and miss the Senate by two.  Well, I was okay with being wrong. 

Nonetheless, here we go.

U.S. Senate Death Watch

I haven't posted about politics much.

Mostly that's because I haven't posted about anything much lately.  But also it's because it's really hard to add anything to the millions of words posted daily by the blogosphere.  And, honestly, do you want to know what I think about Sarah Palin or the bailout?

But here's a question that came up recently, and that I haven't seen discussed: which elderly US Senators are likely to affect the composition of the US Senate by dropping dead in the next couple of years?

(Yes, this is rather morbid.  We've all been sick this week, remember?)

Short version: Akaka and Inouye, both of Hawaii.  Both are 84 years old; both seem in robust good health at the moment but, well, 84 years old.  And Hawaii has a Republican governor, and will until at least January 2011.

An Obama I sort of recognize

I imagine the blogosphere will be all a-twitter this week about this long article on Obama's early political career.  It spends about 12,000 words tracking his rise from liberal lawyer to State Senator to Senator, and reaches this conclusion:

Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack Obama is that he is some sort of anti-establishment revolutionary. Rather, every stage of his political career has been marked by an eagerness to accommodate himself to existing institutions rather than tear them down or replace them. When he was a community organizer, he channelled his work through Chicago’s churches, because they were the main bases of power on the South Side. He was an agnostic when he started, and the work led him to become a practicing Christian. At Harvard, he won the presidency of the Law Review by appealing to the conservatives on the selection panel. In Springfield, rather than challenge the Old Guard Democratic leaders, Obama built a mutually beneficial relationship with them. “You have the power to make a United States senator,” he told Emil Jones in 2003. In his downtime, he played poker with lobbyists and Republican lawmakers. In Washington, he has been a cautious senator and, when he arrived, made a point of not defining himself as an opponent of the Iraq war.

A weekend conversation

Skype is like democracy: it's better than the alternatives.

Me: Fifty dollars he goes all the way.

The Poor Guy in Armenia: Do assassinations count?

Me: NO.

Hm. John Rogers seems to have stalled on the "Don't You Dare Kill Obama" T-shirts.

Anyway. Jerry and Jennifer Wittbrodt broke for Obama in Iowa; I don't doubt that Jonathan and Janet Whitebread are doing the same in New Hampshire. Barring something exceptional or horrific, that's pretty much it.

The troll party is much more interesting. I feel like breaking out a pink polo shirt and asking questions about the flat tax. Hail Eris!

Update ~9 PM EST: woo, that's some strong working-class support for Clinton in Manchester. (I have a Google Map up and the Concord Monitor returns. No TV.)

Update ~10 PM EST: wow. It looks like Clinton really pulled it in. I'm impressed. I checked exit polls and did the quick math on the calculator -- feels like cheating -- and it's pretty much there.

Tomorrow's narrative (been a long time since there was coverage) is going to be so dull to read -- I can write the stories in various pundits' styles in my head already -- and it won't answer the questions I want to know. Worse than football.

(Sorry if sound dispassionate about this, Noel, but I would be a nervous wreck if I didn't keep some distance. I'm really glad about the levels of blue-collar participation, which is an unexpected bonus for the Congressional races.)

Primary blather

Many informed fans of American football believe that the rushing game, where an offensive player carries the ball, is tactically mature. That is to say, there isn't much more to innovate.

Get out the vote efforts were regarded in much the same way. The U.S. has low voter participation. Much of the success of the Republican Party in recent years was caused by pulling in voters from untapped demographics -- in the GOP's case, lower-income, white, non-mainstream Protestants. Pundits and consultants would talk wistfully about drawing in the youth vote, the college vote, the twenty-something vote, the MTV vote. And when they failed, they blamed the apathy of those hooligans and yippies standing on their front lawn, probably smoking reefer.

So. The Iowa Democratic caucus: interesting from an operational point of view. Instead of some guy in a raver hat voting for Nader in Florida, and now working at his dad's car dealership -- almost punishment enough (almost) -- you had a well-organized GOTV pulling in everyone, including a mass of younger people, who broke strongly for Obama. No, 'strongly' is too weak a word. The sort of percentage margin associated with countries where the leaders wear lots of gold braid.

It must have been like St. Crispin's Day for them. But without the disembowelment.

These views do not necessarily.

Contemplating American politics leaves me worried. It's not only that we've had incompetent and malign fools running the government for the past few years -- in fact, people who are objectively traitors, to use the recently popular Orwellian formulation -- but that the rot has to be removed without using the traditional, conservative methods of the gallows and the firing squad. The majority of Americans is going to have to learn how to get along with those radicals who think the Constitution is a personal SWAT team and no-fault insurance policy without dumping their bodies into a lime pit, as members of other, less liberal nations might do... even if the only thing those people truly understand is force.

(Because the U.S. is still better than that, that's why. Even Jefferson Davis survived his time in chains, which is more than can be said for many inhabitants of his failed state.)

Thus, in a spirit of inclusion, I offer this vision of national reconciliation:

My endorsements for each party below the fold.

In a Free State of Mind

I have just discovered Tyrone.  Tyrone is a wise wise man.  I like Tyrone.  Check him out yourself, starting here, and moving on to here.  The title of this post should make sense once you've read to the bottom of the first link. 

The rest of the blog, whatever. 

There is another Tyrone, of course.  I like him too.  Another wise wise man.   

Institutions at Odds

Around this time last year I was in Afghanistan.  I was there with some U.S.-run provincial reconstruction teams, some where you could walk around and eat in the locals’ homes; some where the “security situation” (read: RPG attacks) meant the PRTs reconstructed very little.  It was ... educational.  I will be going back, probably in May, although it’s still uncertain. 

I wrote the below essay (among other, less interesting things on the same topic) after I returned.  It’s an attempt to put my thoughts in order, although upon re-reading I think it might be more informed by my historical research about the Philippines than anything that I saw first-hand.  Be warned:  it’s long, and I don’t know if it really makes any sense.  At some point I’ll publish it, I suppose, but right now I’m still too confused. 

Comments and suggestions would be very helpful. 

A glance northwards

I haven't blogged much about Georgia.

Well, recent events have been kinda disappointing.  Like a lot of people, I had high hopes for Saakashvili.  Not so much because he was "pro-Western" -- that's a pretty meaningless metric, especially around here -- but because he seemed like the kind of leader who pushes my particular buttons: a sane, pragmatic, energetic problem-solver.

In retrospect, there were warning signs.  He rehabilitated Zviad Gamsakhurdia, for starters.  (If you don't know who Gamsakhurdia was, good for you.  He was Georgia's first leader after independence, and was probably the most thoroughly incompetent leader of any post-Soviet republic.)  His reforms were mostly good, but they were all top-down; the Caucasus is stony soil for participatory democracy and stakeholder input.  And he was all too willing to play the nationalism card and whip up foreign threats to support his rule. 

If Saakashvili resembles any other post-Soviet leader, it's Putin.  Ironically enough.

Anyhow: I ran across a good short summary of recent events in Georgia, from the always worthwhile Transitions Online:

Day 11: Towards a grand unified theory of the wingnut

The New York City Math Teacher sent me a sociology working paper by Gambetta and Hertog: "Engineers of Jihad". (Hm. This sounds like something Crooked Timber would post about. Henry Farrell loves him some Gambetta. [checks] Yup. Dude, provenance.)

Anyway. It's well-known in wingnut studies how common engineers are in such movements as evolution denialism, global warming denialism, Holocaust denialism, Reagan worship, Rand worship, and other associated phenomena of the radical right. Conversely, you don't see a whole lot of engineers at the local womyn's center or food co-op (even though, women and food! and most engineers are still men. My sister has a story to tell about that).

Turns out it's cross-cultural.

We find that graduates from subjects such as science, engineering, and medicine are strongly overrepresented among Islamist movements in the Muslim world, though not among the extremist Islamic groups which have emerged in Western countries more recently. We also find that engineers alone are strongly over-represented among graduates in violent groups in both realms. This is all the more puzzling for engineers are virtually absent from left-wing violent extremists and only present rather than over-represented among right-wing extremists.

Daniel Davies claims it has to do with Adorno's f-scale (Davies calls it the f-type). Take the Adorno challenge and find out!

In related research, Rich Cohen investigates the influence of the 'Stache. This seems to be an accident of history amplified through network links.

Encouraging

  Not that I think anything will come off it (I'm a cynic) but I was very heartened to read this story, and very impressed by the eloquence of those kids in front of TV cameras.  Guts, smarts, and heart -- a good combination.  There's hope.

Uninvited

Is that a real word? In any case, that is what happened to Paul Wolfowitz yesterday. The German Development Minister, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, advised Mr. Wolfowitz not to participate in a two-day World Bank forum on Africa that takes place in Berlin next week.

This is quite a dare - to tell the director of an organization not to come to a meeting by his own organization. Think this one through. It's almost, but not quite, as if Wolfowitz had been declared a persona non grata.

The Minister has called repeatedly for Mr. Wolfowitz' resignation and the Germans (and the EU) have grown ever more impatient with the apparent unwillingness of the US government to relieve Mr. Wolfowitz of his post. This latest step can be called an affront, it is definitely not a faux pas - not in the sense that Wieczorek-Zeul wasn't perfectly aware what a ruckus she would create.

It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense -- Wolfowitz, as a German newspaper put it, is already dead on the ground. Why kick him?

Well, I think it sheds light just how annoyed the Europeans are with the US government in this matter. Wieczorek-Zeul's statement is a clear signal to the US government to stop dithering and slithering and get rid of a man who has behaved improperly, and do it NOW. Of course, in the meantime, he started negotiating a deal over his resignation. I have to say, the man has nerve.

Me, I'm sitting back in my chair and watch the events unfold...

Uninvited

Is that a real word? In any case, that is what happened to Paul Wolfowitz yesterday. The German Development Minister, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, advised Mr. Wolfowitz not to participate in a two-day World Bank forum on Africa that takes place in Berlin next week. This is quite a dare - to tell the director of an organization not to come to a meeting by his own organization. Think this one through. It's almost, but not quite, as if Wolfowitz had been declared a persona non grata. The Minister has called repeatedly for Mr. Wolfowitz' resignation and the Germans (and the EU) have grown ever more impatient with the apparent unwillingness of the US government to relieve Mr. Wolfowitz of his post. This latest step can be called an affront, it is definitely not a faux pas - not in the sense that Wieczorek-Zeul wasn't perfectly aware what a ruckus she would create. It also doesn't make a whole lot of sense -- Wolfowitz, as a German newspaper put it, is already dead on the ground. Why kick him? Well, I think it sheds light just how annoyed the Europeans are with the US government in this matter. Wieczorek-Zeul's statement is a clear signal to the US government to stop dithering and slithering and get rid of a man who has behaved improperly, and do it NOW. Of course, in the meantime, he started negotiating a deal over his resignation. I have to say, the man has nerve. Me, I'm sitting back in my chair and watch the events unfold...

The best revenge

This is not a political endorsement, but Croatian elf Dennis Kucinich is now my personal hero.

Back to writing short plays.

The best revenge

This is not a political endorsement, but Croatian elf Dennis Kucinich is now my personal hero. Back to writing short plays.

Plays by sense of smell.

Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson is running for President! You might remember him best as the hapless Secretary of Health and Human Services who appeared drunk on CNN after the anthrax attacks. Well, who didn't feel the pull of the bottle in those trying days.

As far as I can tell, Thompson's plan for the presidency takes a play from the Feingold book. Russ Feingold famously won the Democratic primary for the US Senate in 1992 in Wisconsin by running a goofy, low-key, underdog campaign -- painting his campaign promises on his garage door, going through his house on TV looking for skeletons in his closets, the Elvis impersonator endorsement -- while his opponents engaged in a grisly circular firing squad of negative advertising. He won the primary with a freaking 70% of the vote, and then defeated the Shatneresque Republican incumbent Bob Kasten by seven points in the general election.

So I think Thompson is waiting for Romney, McCain, and Giuliani to kneecap each other:

McCain: I was in a CAGE!
Romney: Adulterers!
Giuliani: Hey, you wear magic underwear!
Romney: And you wear women's clothing! Often!
McCain: I was in a CAGE!

But he's still Tommy. Quoting from today's Ha'aretz, which does not usually cover Wisconsin politics (even though Golda Meir was from Milwaukee):

Plays by sense of smell.

Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson is running for President! You might remember him best as the hapless Secretary of Health and Human Services who appeared drunk on CNN after the anthrax attacks. Well, who didn't feel the pull of the bottle in those trying days. As far as I can tell, Thompson's plan for the presidency takes a play from the Feingold book. Russ Feingold famously won the Democratic primary for the US Senate in 1992 in Wisconsin by running a goofy, low-key, underdog campaign -- painting his campaign promises on his garage door, going through his house on TV looking for skeletons in his closets, the Elvis impersonator endorsement -- while his opponents engaged in a grisly circular firing squad of negative advertising. He won the primary with a freaking 70% of the vote, and then defeated the Shatneresque Republican incumbent Bob Kasten by seven points in the general election. So I think Thompson is waiting for Romney, McCain, and Giuliani to kneecap each other:

McCain: I was in a CAGE! Romney: Adulterers! Giuliani: Hey, you wear magic underwear! Romney: And you wear women's clothing! Often! McCain: I was in a CAGE!

But he's still Tommy. Quoting from today's Ha'aretz, which does not usually cover Wisconsin politics (even though Golda Meir was from Milwaukee):

Preferring the strange to the unknown

I'm going to be spending Election Night at the gym. They've got the speed bag and the heavy bag.

In breaking election coverage, Nicaraguan voters have decided to elect former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega to that nation's presidency. His vice-president, former Contra spokesman Jaime Morales, 'decided to join Ortega's campaign because he preferred "the strange to the unknown."'

Former American president Ronald Reagan could not be reached for comment.

Update: Who the hell schedules spinning on Election Night? But the cute trainer there showed me what I was doing wrong with my lats (my horrible stiff neck).

As for the US election, Doug's prediction was +4 Senate, +18 House, and +4 Governor. Noel Maurer's was +5 Senate and +27 House. Bernard Guerrero's was +4, at most +17, and +6 (AR, CO, MA, NY, OH, MD).

At this point in time, it's at least +5 Senate, +28 House, and +6 Governor, Bernard's picks included. Plus my old allergist won! So.

Preferring the strange to the unknown

I'm going to be spending Election Night at the gym. They've got the speed bag and the heavy bag. In breaking election coverage, Nicaraguan voters have decided to elect former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega to that nation's presidency. His vice-president, former Contra spokesman Jaime Morales, 'decided to join Ortega's campaign because he preferred "the strange to the unknown."' Former American president Ronald Reagan could not be reached for comment. Update: Who the hell schedules spinning on Election Night? But the cute trainer there showed me what I was doing wrong with my lats (my horrible stiff neck). As for the US election, Doug's prediction was +4 Senate, +18 House, and +4 Governor. Noel Maurer's was +5 Senate and +27 House. Bernard Guerrero's was +4, at most +17, and +6 (AR, CO, MA, NY, OH, MD). At this point in time, it's at least +5 Senate, +28 House, and +6 Governor, Bernard's picks included. Plus my old allergist won! So.

More cheap election irony

From "The Haitian Political Situation and Its Effect on the Dominican Republic: 1849-1877," William J. Nelson, The Americas, vol. 45, no. 2, (1988), page 227:

The Dominican Republic, which has once again exhibited the fragility of its political institutions by taking over two weeks to ascertain a winner in its last presidential election...

This paper also uses the phrase, "one of the worst politicians in all of Latin American history". No, it's no one you're likely to know.

Incidentally, if you were writing a short summary of Trujillo's reign, would you put Trujillo's Rwandan-style machete massacre of several tens of thousands of Haitian-Dominicans in 1937 at the forefront (worst act of a despicable man), in the middle (chronologically), or as a passing aside twenty pages later (Jared Diamond)?

More cheap election irony

From "The Haitian Political Situation and Its Effect on the Dominican Republic: 1849-1877," William J. Nelson, The Americas, vol. 45, no. 2, (1988), page 227:

The Dominican Republic, which has once again exhibited the fragility of its political institutions by taking over two weeks to ascertain a winner in its last presidential election...

This paper also uses the phrase, "one of the worst politicians in all of Latin American history". No, it's no one you're likely to know. Incidentally, if you were writing a short summary of Trujillo's reign, would you put Trujillo's Rwandan-style machete massacre of several tens of thousands of Haitian-Dominicans in 1937 at the forefront (worst act of a despicable man), in the middle (chronologically), or as a passing aside twenty pages later (Jared Diamond)?

The 1950s, decade of civility

Dateline, 1956: on election night in the U.S., on the Mutual Radio Show, the popular columnist Walter Winchell told his audience, "A vote for Adlai Stevenson is a vote for Christine Jorgensen."

For those of you who maybe fell asleep in history class, Adlai Stevenson was the intellectually driven governor of Illinois -- he earned a law degree from Northwestern while working at his family's newspaper -- who became the Democratic candidate for American president, twice. That sterling judge of character, Richard Nixon, once called him an "egghead". He was a divorcee.

Christine Jorgensen was one of the first recipients of gender reassignment surgery -- male to female, in her case -- known to the American general public.

As the humorist Chris Sims once put it, "Yes, at this point, anything resembling 'subtext' has been thrown out the window and replaced with some kind of supertext, a rare substance known for its sheer overtness."

Walter Winchell's reputation hasn't aged well. And at this late date, it's hard to tell how much he was believed. But his authority gave people an excuse to act as if they believed what he said -- the 1950s were also a decade of personal integrity -- and Winchell had a lot of fun doing it.

More Brie?

The 1950s, decade of civility

Dateline, 1956: on election night in the U.S., on the Mutual Radio Show, the popular columnist Walter Winchell told his audience, "A vote for Adlai Stevenson is a vote for Christine Jorgensen." For those of you who maybe fell asleep in history class, Adlai Stevenson was the intellectually driven governor of Illinois -- he earned a law degree from Northwestern while working at his family's newspaper -- who became the Democratic candidate for American president, twice. That sterling judge of character, Richard Nixon, once called him an "egghead". He was a divorcee. Christine Jorgensen was one of the first recipients of gender reassignment surgery -- male to female, in her case -- known to the American general public. As the humorist Chris Sims once put it, "Yes, at this point, anything resembling 'subtext' has been thrown out the window and replaced with some kind of supertext, a rare substance known for its sheer overtness." Walter Winchell's reputation hasn't aged well. And at this late date, it's hard to tell how much he was believed. But his authority gave people an excuse to act as if they believed what he said -- the 1950s were also a decade of personal integrity -- and Winchell had a lot of fun doing it. More Brie?

Sympathy for the devil, the Wisconsin edition

All the world knows about Joe McCarthy. But does all the world know what happened to Joe McCarthy?

I grew up maybe twenty miles from where he was born, lived, practiced law, and was buried in Wisconsin. I've seen the only bust I'm aware exists of the man (outside William Buckley's heathen shrine, of course). I'm pretty sure I touched it.

The famine Irish came to farm Wisconsin, and they did it very well. Outagamie County has long been the largest producer of cabbage in the United States. The fields quite literally stink of it. You used to see tractor-trailers marked "Flanagan Sauerkraut! Flanagan?" rolling down the highway from the Flanagan Bear Creek plant. (Mergers have since changed the name.) Joe McCarthy had three grandparents from Ireland and a grandmother from Bavaria. Interethnic marriage along confessional lines was a common Wisconsin pattern. He was born on the farm.

Joe was handsome, smart, a boxer, a good student. He went to Marquette University in Milwaukee, more Jesuit then than it is now. Wisconsin Catholics did not lack confidence. Why would they? He learned poker and sheepshead. He learned the law. As a prank, at his first salaried law practice, someone put a copy of Das Kapital and the Daily Worker in his briefcase. He was an FDR Democrat. It was 1936.

Nineteen years later, as Thomas Reeves recounts in The Life and Times of Joe McCarthy, "the press started to give Joe the 'silent treatment.'"

Sympathy for the devil, the Wisconsin edition

All the world knows about Joe McCarthy. But does all the world know what happened to Joe McCarthy? I grew up maybe twenty miles from where he was born, lived, practiced law, and was buried in Wisconsin. I've seen the only bust I'm aware exists of the man (outside William Buckley's heathen shrine, of course). I'm pretty sure I touched it. The famine Irish came to farm Wisconsin, and they did it very well. Outagamie County has long been the largest producer of cabbage in the United States. The fields quite literally stink of it. You used to see tractor-trailers marked "Flanagan Sauerkraut! Flanagan?" rolling down the highway from the Flanagan Bear Creek plant. (Mergers have since changed the name.) Joe McCarthy had three grandparents from Ireland and a grandmother from Bavaria. Interethnic marriage along confessional lines was a common Wisconsin pattern. He was born on the farm. Joe was handsome, smart, a boxer, a good student. He went to Marquette University in Milwaukee, more Jesuit then than it is now. Wisconsin Catholics did not lack confidence. Why would they? He learned poker and sheepshead. He learned the law. As a prank, at his first salaried law practice, someone put a copy of Das Kapital and the Daily Worker in his briefcase. He was an FDR Democrat. It was 1936. Nineteen years later, as Thomas Reeves recounts in The Life and Times of Joe McCarthy, "the press started to give Joe the 'silent treatment.'"

I'm just sighing

First, some background! From the 2000 Texas Republican Platform:

Panama Canal -- The Party urges Congress to support HJR 77, the Panama and America Security Act, which declares the Carter-Torrijos Treaty null and void. We support re-establishing United States control over the Canal in order to retain our military bases in Panama, to preserve our right to transit through the Canal, and to prevent the establishment of Chinese missile bases in Panama.

Yes, you read that correctly. Chinese missile bases in Panama. You see, Hutchison Whampoa Limited of Hong Kong has a twenty-five year lease to run the container ports at both ends of the Canal, beating out certain Texas-connected American companies for that privilege. And even though Hutchison Whampoa is run by Li Ka-shing, the richest Chinese businessman EVAR, it's obviously a front for the Communist Party. It's all clear now, no? And, yes, it said "The Party". The phrase is from an old Texas saying: "The individual is nothing; the Party is everything." I think John Connally said it first. Anyway, Texas has always been known for its Party animals. Moving on to the 2004 Texas Republican Platform:

Foreign Purchase of Public Property -- The Party opposes any sale or transfer of public properties to foreign or international entities.

Really? Let me get this straight. The Texas Republican Party opposes any sale or transfer of public properties to foreign or international entities. I got the time. I'll wait. [Update: we have Texas Republican dissent! Like I said, better than the Olympics. Comments closed; enjoy the puppy!]

Nobody interested?

One of the more amazing things about the German elections (to me) is how little the (US) blogosphere seems to care about it. Like, not at all. I'm a little hurt. Don't you guys like us anymore? (That is not a serious question.)

Iliescu, still

Ion Iliescu is still around. Back in May, I blogged a bit about how Iliescu was getting on in the aftermath of last year's election. Not a lot has changed since then. Iliescu is still out there. He's still in the paper or on TV almost every day, and according to some polls he's more popular than ever. He's still locked in a complex relationship with PSD: they don't want him in charge, but they can't do without him. One new development: Iliescu announced recently that he's forming a new "center-left social platform", in alliance with -- among others -- former Prime Minister Petre Roman.

In other news

Romania's government just collapsed. Short version: Romania's Constitutional Court rejected a package of laws that the government had passed earlier this year, including a law on judicial reform that is viewed as vital for Romania's accession to the EU at the end of next year. Prime Minister Tariceanu (who has only been in office for a little over six months, remember) had said that if the Court rejected the law, he'd resign. It wasn't widely expected that this would happen. But it did, and so Tariceanu has resigned. And when a Romanian Prime Minister resigns, he takes his government with him. What next? Well, President Basescu gets to appoint a new Prime Minister, who in turn can appoint new Ministers. (And he might just appoint all the same people to their jobs, for a minimum of fuss.) But Parliament has to approve his selection. (1) Parliament is on summer holiday now, and (2) Basescu's Liberal-Democrat-Hungarian-Conservative coalition has only a fragile majority, and (3) Basescu might prefer that Parliament reject his nominee, in order to trigger new elections. More on this as the situation develops.

Two bumper stickers

... seen on parked cars between Prospect Park and Green-Wood Cemetery in Brooklyn, New York. The first: I would fight for hippie chicks The second: GOTT MIT UNS Enough said.

Just one day, please

Is that really too much to ask? I want just one day where I'm not disgusted by some weird Bush thing. One day without odd nominations, disastrous decisions, and this creepy smile of his. Just one day would be nice. For starters.

Silence is golden

"Wir haben uns verstndigt, nicht immer dar�ber zu sprechen, wo wir unterschiedlicher Auffassung sind, sondern dar�ber, wo wir uns einig sind." (We have agreed not always to talk about issues we don't agree on but about those that we do agree on.) Chancellor Schrder in a joint press conference with President Bush, February 23, 2005

Manhole attack!

A couple of summers ago, when we were living in Washington DC, there was a problem with exploding manhole covers. It was actually not funny. Those manhole covers are very heavy, and they would explode unpredictably -- it had to do with the antediluvian electrical wiring in the Georgetown neighborhood. Now that Dubya has descended upon Germany, we get manhole cover fear in a different way:

Source: S�ddeutsche Zeitung

This is only one of the thousand little requests the Secret Service had of the German government to secure Mr. Bush's person. Others were that citizens living along the official traveling route were asked to remove their mailboxes if they exceeded a certain size. It was rumored that the mobile phone net in Mainz was going to be turned off for a day (which was denied, then cautiously de-denied). House owners needed special permits to enter their homes and were kindly informed not to go on their balconies. (I wonder, are there any snipers posted to deter the bold and uncooperative?) The university hospital is not accepting any normal patients today (other than in the internistic department), being "on hold" for Bush and his team. The schools are closed. Public transport is largely suspended. Streets are closed off. Shipping on the Rhein is discontinued. The garbage is not collected and the streets are not being cleaned. The underground parking lots are closed. The Opel plant in R�sselsheim stopped production for the day since they anticipated supply problems (all those blocked roads and bridges and cancelled trains). Employees and workers in the area have been asked to take a day off since the anticipated chaos on the streets would only bring them in very late anyway. Etc. Etc. Mind you, these are not voluntary measures by the Germans. These are imposed restricitions from the US side. (Makes me wonder about the independence of my country, frankly.) Since this is paid for by the German taxpayer (which we are), and the trip is being paid for by the American taxpayer (which we are), Mr. Bush's visit to Germany is suddenly heavily sponsored by our family. I'm not sure I'm liking this thought.

Pope Break 2005

A wise man once told me:

I've tried to put this tactfully before, Carlos. The fact is, there are *limits* to cynicism.

I have my doubts. Via Matthew Yglesias comes this sparkling transcript of an open online chat with Newsweek's Baghdad bureau chief, Rod Nordland. Some excerpts:

London, England: Divide and rule is what the simpleton Americans use to control other weaker nations. What a pathetic, bullying, ruthless, cowardly lot you are! Rod Nordland: E tu madre. Grand Rapids, MI: If WMDs don't exist in Iraq, where are the destroyed ones? Rod Nordland: I think they're in Atlantis. Lenore, WV: I have a question. Why don't you liberals join the American side on this matter? Rod Nordland: I'm not a liberal, sorry. You must have me confused with someone else. Hellowell, ME: why does Bush care so much about what happens in Iraq when there are so many poor, sick, poverty-stricken people in the U.S.? Rod Nordland: Who said he cares? Irvine, CA: Newsweek has joined Ted Kennedy as the pro-insurgent party. Rod Nordland: Another reader who has comprehension problems on the primary-school level. Bucharest, Romania: Hi! Do you really think that democracy is the best thing for Iraq? I mean it's obviously the best thing for some countries (like the U.S.), but is it the best thing for others? Maybe democracy and voting just doesn't fit them, just as royalty for example wouldn't fit U.S. And is that what democracy is all about: who isn't like us is against us, therefore we should try to impose democracy everywhere (by force!)? Rod Nordland: We're going to invade Romania next, so just watch out.

Miron Cosma and his friend

From @rgumente, Dragos' excellent blog:

[..] Well, in 1999 Miron Cozma tried the same trick since the newly appointed government was taking restructuring economic measures with respect to mines. Remember that Iliescu was in opposition at that time. So Cosma took his miners and marched to Bucharest threatening to do the similar things he did in 1990 and 1991. Well, it didn't work out - Radu Vasile, the PM at that time, met him somewhere at half of the road and calmed him down. And he then asked the Justice to take action. The result: Cosma and the other leaders were imprisoned for some 18 years. Now, surprise, surprise: this morning Iliescu uses his presidential power to release Miron Cosma from prison. I think it is an outrageous thing, but Iliescu has debts to pay, and he does pay them in the very last moment. This is Iliescu - the guy who harmed Romania perhaps more than anybody else in the last 15 years, because what he did and what could have done and hadnot.

It's sad and upsetting and, oh. Read the whole thing here. UPDATE I've also written on Fistful of Euros on this.

Behold!

I used to live in Orlando, once. My parents-in-law live close by. Somehow, I'm not all that surprised to see that something like this made its first appearance here.

Elections, briefly

I hardly blogged at all for a month. So there hasn't been much about the Romanian elections. Now they're just two days away, so there's not much left to say. Here's the simple version. There are Parliamentary elections and then there's also a Presidential election, which is separate. Romania has a "French" parliamentary system, which means it has both a President and a Prime Minister. It could possibly happen that one party might gain a majority in Parliament -- which would allow them to choose the Prime Minister -- while another party elects the President. The Parliamentary elections will be all done by Sunday night. The Presidential election will only finish if one candidate wins 50% -- unlikely, since there are 12 candidates in the race. More probably, it will go to a runoff election between the two strongest candidates, two weeks later. Some brief details follow.

Ukraine, briefly

Wild stuff is happening in the Ukraine right now. You can find an overview, updated a couple of times per day, over at A Fistful of Euros. Some good Ukrainian blogs are also posting on this, more or less live: Neeka's Backlog (in English), Abdymak (mixed English and Ukrainian -- if you can't understand it, scroll down a bit) and Obdymok. Slow-motion revolution, exercise in political futility, or prelude to big trouble? Too soon to tell -- but I have to say, it's really, really hard to see how Vladimir Putin can allow this to go forward. Last year Georgia, this year Ukraine... the progression is a little too obvious. Scary stuff, if you're sitting in the Kremlin. So, I'm finding it hard to be optimistic. Not too many Romanians seem interested, BTW. Ukraine is Romania's largest neighbor, but events there don't seem to have captured the popular imagination. (Any of our Romanian readers care to comment on this?)

It's all over now

We're deeply depressed. We're oscillating between despair and disbelief. I agree with Scott that it's a decision on morals. One TV commentator said that people voted for good old values. I can't agree. Just as I can't believe Bush is really a Christian, because he lacks compassion and modesty, good old values are not about alienating the world and making everyone feel threatened. Good old values to me are respect for your fellow humans, manners, thrift, responsibility, respect for the rule of law. I look at Abu Ghraib and I don't see good old values. I see fear and loathing of homosexuals used to rally the faithful, and I don't see morality. I read about how the President can declare any US citizen to be an enemy combatant, and can hold them without trial indefinitely, and keep them from legal help, and do things to them that -- well, that are not "torture" because they've changed the definition. But I can't look at this and say, yes, this is right. I can't look at my little boys and say, sons, be proud of this.

It's not looking so good

If I weren't so horribly worried, if I didn't have this feeling of impending doom, then I wouldn't be so unhappy about Bush winning. But I truly believe that another four years of Bush will be very bad for the US, and for the rest of the world. Obviously, it's not a view shared by most Americans, or so it seems at the moment. Sigh. Of course, there is still time to surprise me! Hope springs eternal.

Waiting

So we are having an early morning election breakfast/brunch tomorrow. Friends will be coming over, there will be coffee, food, and alcoholic beverages according to results (champagne if we win, palinka to drink ourselves into amnesia if we loose). Our friends are all rooting for Kerry, so nobody is going to get hurt. Our doors are open from 7:30 on, the breakfast will seemlessly go over into the Wednesday baby group and continue on as long as... No, let me rephrase that. It will go on until we're tired of it.

Vote!

If someone tells you that Europe is not trying to influence the US election with all her might -- then this someone is wrong. I'm European, I'm not allowed to vote. However, I'm the wife of a (voting) US citizen and the mother of two (non-voting) US citizens. Therefore, I feel obligated to do my best and ensure a brighter future for my husband and sons. These are my tactics: Blackmail I told my US relatives that we WILL NOT live in the US as long as a Bush is president. I'm keeping this vague on purpose. This way, I have my options open if Jenna gets elected in '28 or so. My mother-in-law is persuaded; however, she does live with her husband who is a stout Republican. I love him but he's got a political blind eye, and he tries to undermine my efforts. I shall call her on election day and remind her of my threat, just to be sure. Unfortunately, the threat doesn't work one bit with my Republican sister-in-law and her husband. I think they are not taking me seriously. Will they ever be surprised. (Of course, I'm hoping that I don't have to live up to my threats.) Encouraging voter registration Doug did want to vote, yes. But he's also Mr. Procrastination and while I love and trust him, I did make sure that he applied for his absentee ballot. (Opening the respective website, cajoling him into the desk chair, hovering over his shoulder until he hit "send" can, I believe, be called "making sure". Or harassment.) Reminding to vote I also asked him every day whether he'd sent his ballot off. Every day. Multiple times. Stating my side We do have a Kerry/Edwards yard sign. I made it myself. Isn't it gorgeous?

Why, you ask, a yard sign in a country where 99.9% of the inhabitants cannot vote in this particular election? So, what if an expat walked by my sign, acknowledged my deep feelings, and out of respect and friendship for me made up his undecided mind and voted Democrat? I say, if I play the lottery, I can also put up a yard sign. I also made my husband laugh in delight. So there. Endorsement While I'm only speaking for myself, I'm sure my co-writers Doug and Carlos agree: Halfway down the Danube endorses John Kerry and John Edwards. Please consider voting for Kerry/Edwards. I'm not saying they are the greatest, or that they will make everything wonderful and good. But they will make things better, because -- let's face it -- it would take a very extraordinary talent to make things worse than they already are. Remove that one talent from office and give the other team a chance. Thank you very much for your attention. Yours gratefully, Claudia Muir

Our friend the Minister

A friend of ours was appointed a minister of state yesterday. His name is Milan Parivodic, and he's a lawyer in Belgrade. We met three and a half years ago when I came to Belgrade for the first time. I was giving technical advice to the Serbian government on a proposed new law for secured transactions, and Milan was the first Serbian lawyer I met to talk about it, and, well, we just hit it off. We spent an afternoon geeking out on the details of secured transactions ("...but then, you may have a third party who takes the collateral...") and we've been friends ever since. The fact that he has an adorable baby girl who's the same age as Alan may have helped. When we moved away from Belgrade, we lost touch with a lot of acquaintances. But some have stayed with us. We haven't seen Milan face-to-face in months, but we've been in regular e-mail and phone contact. And then, yesterday: Prime Minister Kostunica has asked him to be the Minister for International Economic Relations. He may (should) be confirmed next week. It's a small Ministry, but it has a lot of interesting work to do: commercial treaties (which Serbia, not being part of the EU, has a lot of), encouraging foreign investment, pre-EU-accession matters, all sorts of stuff. Maybe I'll blog a little bit about Serbia's commercial relations in a bit. For now, though, we're just very happy for our friend.