Uganda: 2011 and all that

Everybody here is worried about 2011.  Two reasons.

One, the next round of elections.  Uganda's president/dictator, Yoweri Museveni, has been in power nonstop since 1986.  He last won re-election in 2006; he's up for re-election in early 2011. 

Nobody thinks for a moment that this election will be free or fair.  The last one involved the arrest of the main opposition leader for treason and rape.  And Museveni has only become more authoritarian and assholic since then.  (And also Uganda has discovered oil, which is a powerful incentive to stay in office.) 

On the other hand, young Ugandans -- and most Ugandans are young -- are pretty sick of Museveni.  So when-not-if he steals the election, it's unlikely to go over well.

That by itself would be worrisome but, hell, obnoxious government steal elections all the time.  But then there's also Sudan. 

Uganda's northern neighbor, the second biggest country in Africa, Sudan suffered through twenty years of civil war between the Muslim and Arab-influenced north and the mostly black and non-Muslim south.  The war ended in 2006 with the signing of a peace agreement.  The peace agreement did two things.  One, it gave a very high degree of autonomy -- de facto independence, nearly -- to South Sudan.  And two, it arranged for a referendum on independence to take place in... yes! 2011, right around the time Uganda is having its election.

Now, the central government of Sudan would be inclined to let the South go; it's a desperately poor region inhabited by people who hate the north.  Except... the South has all sorts of mineral wealth.  Including oil.  Lots and lots of it.  So nobody believes that this is going to go down easy.  (It doesn't help that the central government of Sudan is a fairly vicious dictatorship run by a guy who's under indictment for genocide.)

Further: there won't be one, but two referenda.  One will be for most of South Sudan.  The other will be for Abiye Province, which lies on the border between North and South and -- you guessed it -- contains most of the oil.  Assuming the South votes for independence, the Abiye vote is sure to be disputed by the losing side.  So there's a real possibility of a no-kidding shooting war.  South Sudan seems to be building up a substantial force of tanks (via Lawyers, Guns and Money); presumably the north is doing much the same.  

To make matters worse, there's a connection between the two.  Northern Uganda, next to Sudan, is ethnically and culturally closer to South Sudan than it is to the rest of Uganda.  And the north hates Yoweri Museveni.  To make a long story short, Museveni came to power after the overthrow of the evil dictator, Milton Obote.  (Obote had come to power by overthrowing the much more evil dictator, Idi Amin.)  Obote was from the north, so Museveni has always been suspicious of the north, and hasn't treated it well.  The north, in turn, has given rise to a couple of armed separatist movements, most notably the grotesque Lords Resistance Army.  Even northerners who don't support the LRA or anything like it are not fans of Museveni.  He's not going to get many votes up there.  And when he steals the election, the north is going to be particularly pissed.

So, it's very easy to imagine a conflict in Sudan spreading south to northern Uganda.  And the one-two punch of the Ugandan election plus the Sudanese referendum is going to make things all the more interesting.

Here in Kampala?  I'm already hearing people using "2011" as shorthand for all this.  It's a little worrisome.

Comments

[Muzkays]

Banaye, temweruma.
Muzkays for next president.
we tired of the old bunch of thieves from both the ruling en opposition establishments.
Vote muzkays come 2011!!!
Its sounds like a joke but at 27 man am standing come 2011.
Do u want 2 join the strugle 4 a prosperous uganda?
Contact me at [email protected]

[Azim]

Mr musevini must be the president for Uganda, because he had bought the country to a safest and he had given a lot of efforts to bring his country to a growth

[Marion Margaret Mawe]

Museveni would be a good option,but all the years he has been in power he has failed to address the following:
corruption, poverty;the few programmes put in place benefit people who are royal to the party,and most of the high profile jobs are given to his family and their close relatives, friends and those who are trusted to dance to his tune; there is a lot of nepotism!
True democracy means after winning elections you serve all the people without discrimination.
We will give him the vote if he assures us( spokes person of a big group)of a new approach to the above if he wins.

[Bernard Guerrero]

"the few programmes put in place benefit people who are royal to the party"

Telling typo?

"True democracy means after winning elections you serve all the people without discrimination."

This does not and has never existed in the real world. Three words: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice_theory

[Alish]

museveni is old so is his brain. No disrespect but it is high time he retired and gave someone else a chance.
Uganda needs a young and fresh president, change to corruption and poverty. One who will not fill alll the posts with illiterates like him. Time for change.