Interesting factoid: about 94% of world oil production gets burned, while about 6% is used as feedstock -- piped into factories to make chemicals, fertilizers and (especially) plastic.
There's been a fair amount of discussion about how to gradually phase out oil in transportation. I haven't seen any about the feedstock issue, though. Go figure. The world drinks a huge amount of oil every day, and 6% of a huge amount is still a lot.
Presumably petroleum products run the gamut from stuff that could easily use other inputs, through stuff that would be possible but very hard and expensive to make without petroleum, to stuff that cannot plausibly be made with any other input. I'd guess offhand that a lot of plastics fall into those latter groups, but I really don't know.
This led me to a few moments of speculation: imagine a future where all transport has shifted to hydrogen (or whatever), but a small crude oil extraction industry stays alive to provide high-end plastics. Which are luxury goods, of course, and status symbols...
But no. The price of petroleum-only products would hit a ceiling once it the price of oil rose high enough to make petroleum synthesis profitable. That would be high by today's standards -- hundreds of dollars a barrel -- but not high enough for plastic jewelry to replace gold and platinum.
Still: soaring crude prices must have various industries looking around for alternative feedstocks. Wonder why we're not hearing more about that.
You occasionally hear about materials like jute or rattan, or especially hemp.
For replacements for plastic sheeting, I've heard chitin or Acetobacter-made cellulose put about. Someone even went so far as to make clothing from Acetobacter cellulose.
Posted by: Edmund Schluessel | November 14, 2008 at 03:59 AM
I have a vague memory of an undergraduate geology class back in the late 1970's where the professor (or maybe it was in a textbook) discussed the stupidity of burning such a useful, non-renewable substance as oil.
Posted by: Nancy Barber | November 14, 2008 at 06:08 AM
obDennis-Doesn't-Know-a-damn-thing-about-chemistry:
if we're handwaving a petroleum substitute for energy that results in gargantuan amounts of cheap energy, can't we just assemble hydrocarbons by brute force?
obSilly:
Artificial whales. Krill goes in, oil comes out.
Posted by: Dennis Brennan | November 14, 2008 at 06:32 PM
Well, there are a number of bioplastics that are running around the Bay Area. They're corn derived, but given the reality distortion field that exists in this area, it's really, really hard to tell if this is really a via $tech or Yet Another Wishful Thinking Waste.
Posted by: Will Baird | November 14, 2008 at 11:32 PM
The most recent Science News (which is growing distressingly more USA-today-ish with each passing year--but I digress) has an article about scientists researching spider silks as a potential replacement for petroleum-based man-made fibers in both clothing and industrial applications.
Did you know that spiders make up to 5 kinds of silk (silkworms only make one type, with proteins that some people are allergic to, which is why silkworm silk, the sine qua non of suture materials still has to be coated w/a petroleum-based product. And I'm digressing. Again.)
Googles 'round...
Here: http://uwadmnweb.uwyo.edu/rpc/UWTechs/VarousTechsSpiderSilk.asp
Posted by: Carbonel | November 21, 2008 at 12:00 PM
The reason, Doug, is twofold.
(1) Nobody expected fuel prices to stay that high for long.
(2) Credit markets are all f****d up. How you gonna finance a big R&D program to compensate for a cost hit that's far in the future and probably doesn't make up a big chunk of your total expenses anyway?
Posted by: Noel Maurer | November 26, 2008 at 08:14 PM