Everybody's doing 'em.
I did a set for the midterm and, um, not so great. I was too conservative, guessing the Dems would win a "razor thin" majority in the House and miss the Senate by two. Well, I was okay with being wrong.
Nonetheless, here we go.
President: Obama. He'll win the Kerry states (231 votes) plus Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. He won't get Georgia or West Virginia or that one vote in Nebraska. Indiana, North Dakota and Montana will be within five, closer than anyone would have believed possible a year ago, but still red.
Total score: 332. Popular vote: 53 - 46.
Senate: Dems pick up eight. I can't believe Al Franken will get in, and I don't see any of the three plausible Southern challengers going the distance -- which is a pity, because the Republicans in Kentucky and Georgia are particularly odious. (Georgia will be close, though. All those early voters.) My former classmate Scott Kleeb will make a decent showing in Nebraska, but he's up against an incredibly strong Republican candidate and will have a very tough time coming through.
House: really, just guessing here. Dems pick up twenty-four, making it 260 - 175. Nice round number.
One I know nothing about, but will be watching with interest: New York State Senate races. Dems are one seat away from flipping it, but the GOP is fighting back hard, and may hang on -- there's a (possibly valid) perception that if this goes, New York City will end up running everything. The State Senate has been the firewall against that since 1938, so if they do flip it really will be the end of an era.
Okay, those are mine. What have you got?
I've been watching the Coleman/Franken/whoever race as an at least somewhat interested party (since I do live in MN). From what I've been seeing, Franken may take it. If the independent wasn't in the race, I'd be certain about it. Coleman is NOT a popular figure right now - the fact that his ad campaign is mostly attack ads on Franken isn't helping. We're getting sick and tired of ad campaigns that tell us how awful the other guy is but don't tell us why you're a good candidate. We're getting more positive ads from Franken, which is helping him.
And don't forget Jesse Ventura - we've voted entertainment industry figures into high public office before!
Posted by: Scott Raun | November 04, 2008 at 03:30 AM
Obama with 348 EV.
Senate: D +7
House: D +19
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero | November 04, 2008 at 04:37 AM
Obama 393 McCain 145
McCain will lose Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota.
Senate 59D 2I 39R Jim Martin in Georgia and Lunsford will upset in Kentucky.
House 252D 183R
And the New York State Senate is switching.
Upstate is getting cored out bigtime.
Hey, someone had to cover the optimistic end of the spread!
Posted by: The New York City Math Teacher | November 04, 2008 at 06:10 AM
Optimism is in the eye of the beholder. Thankfully I got my big payout in '07. And my options won't even vest for a good 4 years.
Posted by: Bernard Guerrero | November 05, 2008 at 03:07 AM