My primary predictions for tonight: Ohio, Clinton +7%; Texas, Clinton +4%; Rhode Island, Clinton +15%; Vermont, Obama +11%. My reasoning? A little less than the polled gap in Ohio, an unexpected Clinton surge in Texas, and without Noel in Rhode Island, it would have been +18%.
Wait, those are the Obama campaign's projections from last month.
This tells me that all of Clinton's efforts -- and she's campaigned hard -- had already been taken into account by the Obama campaign a month ago.
It's like one of those piece exchanges in chess that looks even, but one player somehow manages to come out a knight ahead, planning it moves in advance. Not that I play chess.
Kind of spooky.